On Monday, April 28, Canada held early federal elections to choose new Members of Parliament following the dissolution of Parliament in late March. Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won with 43.7% of the vote and 169 seats, while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party came close behind with 41.3% and 144 seats. As a result, the Liberals will continue governing but in a minority position.

The outcome of this election carries not only domestic relevance but also marks a geopolitical turning point in the face of mounting pressure from the United States and the resurgence of Donald Trump.

These elections were heavily shaped by Prime Minister Trudeau’s resignation and growing tensions with the U.S., including tariffs and even annexation threats. At the beginning of the year, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were the clear frontrunners, with polls giving them over a 20-point lead over a Liberal Party weakened by a decade in office. This bleak outlook, combined with intense political and public pressure, led Justin Trudeau, after 9 years in power, to step down on January 6, 2025. In his place emerged Mark Carney, a man with impeccable credentials but no prior experience in elected office. Shortly after taking office, Carney called for snap elections.

The political debate, initially focused on inflation and cost-of-living concerns, was drastically reshaped by Trump’s return to the White House and his aggressive rhetoric towards Canada. A 25% tariff on key exports like steel, aluminum, and vehicles, along with threats of annexation and mocking references to Canada as “the 51st state,” turned national pride into a central campaign issue. This shift hurt Poilievre, who was widely criticized for his ambiguous stance on Trump. His argument that Carney would continue the “Liberal failure” faded, while Carney reoriented his campaign to confront Trump and defend Canadian sovereignty.

But who is Mark Carney, and how did he rise to the highest political office?

Carney is a global technocrat with a highly unusual yet impressive background for a prime minister. Born in Fort Smith, Northwest Territories, to an Irish-Canadian family, he studied at Harvard and earned a doctorate in Economics from Oxford, focusing his thesis on domestic competitiveness. He spent over a decade at Goldman Sachs, holding positions in New York, London, and Tokyo, where he specialized in sovereign debt, emerging markets, and financial restructuring. In 2003, he joined the Bank of Canada as Deputy Governor and later became Governor, a position he held during the 2008 financial crisis.

In 2013, he gained global prominence as the first non-Briton in over 300 years to head the Bank of England. He also chaired the Financial Stability Board and was a member of the World Economic Forum. Carney is the only living person to have led the central banks of two G7 nations. He was credited with foreseeing the 2008 crisis and shielding Canada’s banking system, as well as for his early warnings on Brexit. Despite having no prior political career, Carney quickly transformed from a technocrat into a national political figure, and his April 2025 electoral victory, amid a major trade and diplomatic confrontation with the U.S., signaled that many Canadians viewed him as not just an economic expert but a staunch defender of national sovereignty.

Liberal Policy Agenda: Key Areas

In defense and national security, Carney aims for accelerated rearmament to exceed NATO’s 2% GDP spending target by 2030. This includes major investments in submarines, Arctic icebreakers, advanced artillery, and both aerial and underwater drones. A new military innovation hub, BOREALIS, will focus on AI, quantum computing, and cybersecurity. He also proposes a sweeping reform of defense procurement to prioritize domestic industry.

The Arctic holds a strategic centerpiece in Carney’s agenda. In response to melting ice, the opening of new routes, and growing Russian and Chinese presence, Carney plans to consolidate Canadian sovereignty in the North. His proposal includes dual-use infrastructure (military and civilian) developed in partnership with Indigenous communities, new deep-water ports, logistical airstrips, and a security alliance with Europe. He also envisions installing advanced radar systems with Australian support for early threat detection.

The economic plan responds directly to the “trade war” launched by the U.S. Carney advocates for industrial autonomy through a $2 billion strategic fund to protect sectors like automotive, steel, batteries, and critical minerals. The goal is to reduce dependence on the U.S., strengthen control over key sectors (health, data, natural resources), and diversify markets through new trade deals with blocs such as MERCOSUR and ASEAN. This is paired with a fiscal strategy that combines targeted tax cuts with heavy investment in productive sectors.

On climate policy, Carney has scrapped the consumer carbon tax but proposes an ambitious green industrial transition. His vision frames climate action as a driver of employment and strategic independence. He aims to scale up clean tech development, expand EV charging infrastructure, invest in carbon capture, and achieve energy sovereignty through domestic production of clean energy and critical minerals. This climate vision is tightly linked to foreign policy, positioning Canada as a green growth leader within the G7.

On immigration, the Liberal plan recognizes that recent population growth has outpaced the country’s integration capacity. Carney proposes to cap temporary foreign workers and international students at 5% of the population, stabilize permanent immigration around 1% annually, and accelerate foreign credential recognition to facilitate economic integration. The goal is to rebuild public consensus on immigration as a driver of prosperity, avoiding tensions around housing, employment, and public services.

Finally, Carney’s vision reinforces Canada’s traditional soft power through a more active foreign policy. He has pledged to renew the diplomatic strategy first designed in 2005, now outdated given today’s global context. He also intends to maintain humanitarian aid commitments of at least $800 million per year and to take the lead in initiatives like seizing Russian assets to help rebuild Ukraine. With U.S. leadership in retreat, the message is clear: if Washington steps back, Canada will step forward as a liberal anchor in a world in turmoil.

Seen in broader terms, this election result stems directly from Trump’s relentless pressure campaign against Canada since taking office in mid-January. Poilievre’s prior alignment with Trumpism caused a dramatic shift among voters who, though critical of the Liberals, opted for Carney once Canadian sovereignty appeared under threat. Carney’s victory is tied to a wounded national pride in the face of MAGA contempt. In the final weeks before the vote, signs of anti-American sentiment emerged across public events, including protests and even booing of the U.S. national anthem at sports games. Travel agencies reported a significant drop in Canadians choosing to vacation in the U.S.

The Liberal Party would be mistaken to interpret this result as a broad endorsement of its recent record. Rather, it represents a second chance shaped by geopolitical urgency. Carney, aware of the wear-and-tear from the Trudeau era, has actively sought to distinguish himself with a more technocratic, growth-oriented strategy focused on productive investment, reindustrialization, and national sovereignty in the face of U.S. pressure. His platform emphasizes modernizing the state, reducing operational costs, and catalyzing private investment in key sectors like defense, housing, green energy, and technology.

REFERENCES

1. BBC News. (2025, abril 29). Canada election: Liberals win minority amid Trump tensions. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3911lv1pzko
2. France 24. (2025, abril 29). Canadá: los liberales de Mark Carney ganan unas elecciones marcadas por tensiones con EE. UU. https://www.france24.com/es/ee-uu-y-canad%C3%A1/20250429-canad%C3%A1-los-liberales-de-mark-carney-ganan-unas-elecciones-marcadas-por-tensiones-con-ee-uu
3. BBC Mundo. (2025, abril 29). Elecciones en Canadá: los liberales de Carney ganan en medio de tensiones con EE. UU. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/c62x1dpeppeo
4. CNN. (2025, abril 28). Canada election results: Liberals win minority government amid Trump tensions. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/28/americas/canada-election-results-carney-poilievre-intl-hnk/index.html
5. BBC News. (2025, abril 29). Canada election: Liberals secure minority government. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgkg8r85n1eo
6. BBC News. (2025, abril 29). Canada election: Key takeaways from the vote. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20l2evgny6o
7. Reuters. (2025, abril 19). Carney pledges tax cuts, defense spending in Canada election platform. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/carney-pledges-tax-cuts-defense-spending-canada-election-platform-2025-04-19/
8. CTV News. (2025, abril 25). Poilievre lays out plan for first 100 days of a Conservative government. https://www.ctvnews.ca/federal-election-2025/article/poilievre-lays-out-plan-for-first-100-days-of-a-conservative-government/
9. Liberal Party of Canada. (2025, abril). Canada Strong – 2025 Liberal Party Election Platform.https://liberal.ca/canadas-2025-election-platform/