Poland faces a crucial presidential runoff that could redefine its role in the EU and its political future.
On May 18, the first round of the Polish presidential elections was held. The result, which led Rafał Trzaskowski to narrowly win over Karol Nawrocki, leads to a second round that will take place next June 1st. This article explains the political context and the significance of this electoral process in one of the most important countries for the future of the European Union.
1. Poland’s political landscape
Currently, the Polish political framework is divided into two major blocs: first, the governing coalition, which is formed by the parties “Civic Coalition,” “Third Way,” and “The Left.” This coalition was formed after the parliamentary elections of October 2023, with the goal of taking power from “Law and Justice” (PiS), which had been in power for eight years.
Below, I will detail the characteristics of the main political forces that make up this governing coalition.
1.1. The governing forces:
– (KO) – Civic Coalition:
This political alliance was created in 2018 to expand the base of the main party leading the coalition, Civic Platform. Civic Platform held power in Poland between 2007 and 2014, led by Donald Tusk during two consecutive terms, who held the position of prime minister. It is a coalition with great ideological diversity, as it includes a center-right party such as Civic Platform, along with liberal, progressive, and green parties. This coalition is once again led by Tusk, who, after his time in Brussels as President of the European Council, decided to return to national politics in 2021 with the goal of taking power back from Law and Justice (PiS).
– (Trzecia Droga) – Third Way:
This other coalition was formed in April 2023 as an alliance between two parties: Poland 2050, centrist, pro-European, and reformist, and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), which mainly defends the agricultural sectors from a moderate political stance. The PSL had already governed together with Civic Platform (the core of Civic Coalition) during Tusk’s first government. This coalition seeks to represent an alternative to both Tusk and PiS in a renewal of Polish politics by forming a coalition capable of attracting a broad electorate, since it includes both conservative and liberal positions, but always from a moderate position.
– (Lewica) – The Left:
It is a coalition formed by a mix of pro-European social democratic parties positioned between the center-left and the left. They support progressive measures, favoring environmentalist, feminist, secular, and pro-LGBT policies.
After describing the three different formations that currently govern jointly in Poland, I will now provide a brief analysis of the two main opposition parties.
1.2. The opposition:
– (PiS) – Law and Justice
PiS is the main opposition force to the government led by Tusk. It is a nationalist, conservative, and Eurosceptic party, which succeeded Tusk in 2015 and governed until 2023. Its policies during this period resembled those carried out by Viktor Orbán in Hungary, with the significant difference of the clear support they showed for Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion. During its time in power until 2023, Mateusz Morawiecki was the prime minister in Poland, but his figure was more that of the institutional leader. PiS cannot be understood without the Kaczyński twin brothers, Lech and Jarosław. Both co-founded the party in 2001 and won their first electoral victories in 2005. In just a few months, PiSwon both the parliamentary and presidential elections, although in the parliamentary ones their majority was not absolute. Lech Kaczyński was President of the Republic of Poland until his death in a plane crash in 2010, while Jarosław was prime minister in 2006 and 2007, when PiS’s unstable parliamentary majority collapsed. From 2007 until today, Jarosław Kaczyński has not held any executive office again, but nevertheless, he has exercised total control of the party with an iron hand, and all important decisions made by PiS carry his signature, including who is on the electoral lists, who the ministers are (including the prime minister), and the political direction the party follows. He is still one of the most powerful and influential men in Poland.
His style has been characterized by the ambition to control the courts and the country’s media, undertaking judicial reforms to that end that undermined the independence of the judiciary, which has caused PiS serious conflicts with the European Union.
– (Konfederacja) – Confederation
Confederation is a far-right party characterized by its Euroscepticism and ultranationalism. Again, it is another coalition between two far-right parties that decided to run together in the 2019 European Elections. Its political ideology is strongly opposed to advancements in social and minority rights, and it maintains a very hardline stance on immigration. It is openly hostile to the policies of the European Union and has expressed opposition to continuing military and financial support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. It is a party on the rise, which was the fifth political force in the 2023 parliamentary elections, and, according to the results of the first round of the presidential elections, has consolidated itself as the third political force in Poland.
2. The 2023 parliamentary elections
On October 15, 2023, parliamentary elections were held in Poland. PiS (Law and Justice) had been in power since 2015. These elections were crucial for Poland, and would determine, on the one hand, the total consolidation of PiS’s power by maintaining its majority in the parliamentary chambers, or, on the other hand, the change of direction hoped for by a large part of the Polish population, which longed for a political shift after many years of Eurosceptic government.
The future of the European project played a key role in the election. Under PiS rule, Poland frequently formed a common front with the Hungarian government, led by Viktor Orbán. The two governments maintained close relations due to the similarity of their political positions and, under the pretext of defending national sovereignty, Poland and Hungary often undermined the authority of the European Union in favor of their own national interests and agendas. Both countries were sanctioned by the European Union for violations against the rule of law. Specifically, in 2021, the Polish Supreme Court ruled that the Polish Constitution had supremacy over the jurisdiction of the CJEU, which generated a political crisis with the EU.
Everything changed in February 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine took place, and both governments broke their alliance by adopting radically opposite stances towards the aggression. While Hungary distanced itself from the EU and NATO, adopting a neutral stance toward the conflict and sometimes even appearing complacent with Vladimir Putin’s regime, Poland aligned itself with the rest of the Member States and stood out especially for its firm opposition to Russia and its fervent support for Ukraine, helping the invaded country both militarily and through humanitarian means, even welcoming around one and a half million refugees. In this way, PiS gained a degree of legitimacy on the international stage, but tensions with Brussels remained due to its internal policies.
In this increasingly polarized atmosphere, the opposition organized around the figure of Donald Tusk. Tusk was prime minister between 2007 and 2014 and left the post to assume the role of President of the European Council. In 2021, he returned to national politics, leading Civic Platform, representing a moderate, liberal, and pro-European alternative opposed to the Eurosceptic policies of PiS. Under Tusk’s leadership, a massive demonstration was called in Warsaw two weeks before the elections, known as the “March of the Million Hearts,” which showed the discontent of hundreds of thousands of people after eight years of PiS government.
The results of the elections were as follows:
- Law and Justice (PiS): 35.38%
- Civic Coalition (KO): 30.70%
- Third Way: 14.40%
- The Left: 8.61%
- Confederation: 7.16%
Voter turnout was the highest since 1989, the year Poland transitioned to democracy, with 74% of the population participating. PiS was the most voted party, but did not reach the majority, not even together with Confederation, while Civic Coalition did manage to form a majority along with Third Way and The Left, totaling 54%, and Tusk was appointed prime minister.
The governing coalition was supported by parties with very different ideologies. There was no prior agreement between the forces that made Tusk prime minister, but it was tacitly understood that Civic Coalition, Third Way, and The Left would unite against PiS in case they had the possibility of reaching a parliamentary majority together, which is what ultimately happened.
3. The 2024 local and European elections
In the Polish regional elections of April 2024, PiS remained the most voted party with 34.27%, while Civic Coalition obtained 30.59%, according to data presented by the Polish Electoral Commission. As we can see in the IPSOS image, which shows which party won in each region, it can be observed that KO (Civic Coalition) won in 10 of the 16 regions, and PiS in the other 6. This represents a change compared to 2018, when PiS won in 9 regions and KO in 7.
In 2018, PiS dominated the center-south of the country, while KO had more influence in the west. In 2024, this situation changed in some regions such as Lower Silesia, Silesia, and Łódź, urbanized and economically dynamic areas that opted for a liberal, pluralist, and pro-European option.
Although the result of these elections showed a territorial setback for PiS and an expansion of Civic Coalition, the results were more favorable for PiS than in the 2023 general elections. While in the general elections 74% of citizens voted, in the regional elections turnout was much lower, slightly exceeding 40%.
In the 2019 European elections, PiS obtained 45.38% of the votes compared to 38.47% for the European Coalition, an opposition alliance that included Civic Platform, PSL, and The Left. The coalition dissolved after the elections due to ideological differences. In the most recent European elections held on June 9, 2024, the current Civic Coalition (KO), heir to the liberal bloc, ran independently and improved its result, surpassing PiS.
The centrist formation led the vote with 37.1%, followed by PiS, which obtained 36.2%. The far-right party Confederation obtained 12.1%, and finally Third Way (6.9%) and Lewica (6.3%) were more relegated.
These results symbolized a political shift towards a pro-European center. For the first time since 2014, there was a party that surpassed PiS in votes. During these years, PiS had led voting in 8 consecutive elections: parliamentary, presidential, regional, and European. Furthermore, the strengthening of radical parties such as Confederation shows how the political space is not only moving toward the center, but also toward the extremes — a trend visible throughout Europe.
4. The 2025 presidential election: How the system works
The presidential elections in Poland took place on May 18, 2025, leading to a second round on June 1. In them, the new President of the Republic of Poland will be elected.
The Polish system is semi-presidential, which means that the prime minister, his government, and the Council of Ministers have the necessary powers to govern. However, the President of the Republic also has the power to make decisions in certain areas. These functions are defined by the Constitution of Poland, which was promulgated in 1997.
The Polish Constitution regulates the powers held by the President of the Republic in Chapter V. In its Article 127, a five-year term is established for the president, who is elected by universal and direct suffrage and may not be re-elected more than once, in addition to a series of requirements to be eligible for nomination. Between Articles 130 and 145, the functions that the President of the Republic must assume are detailed, and these powers include:
- Ratifying and denouncing international treaties, informing the legislative chambers. (Art. 133)
- The President is the Supreme Commander of the Polish Armed Forces. (Art. 134)
- Power to grant Polish citizenship. (Art. 137)
- Right of pardon or clemency. (Art. 139)
- Promulgation of laws, which must be validated by the Prime Minister. (Art. 144)
- Right of veto. (Art. 122)
- Power to call elections. (Art. 98)
- Appointment of judges from candidates proposed by the National Council of the Judiciary. (Art. 179)
5. Presidential candidates
The current president, Andrzej Duda, was elected in 2015 and re-elected in 2020, so he cannot run again and will end his term on August 6, 2025. This restriction guarantees that in 2025, Poland will have a new President of the Republic.
Duda is a member of the Law and Justice party (PiS), which held governmental power in Poland from 2015 to 2023, when it lost the parliamentary majority to the coalition led by Donald Tusk. In these elections, as we have already mentioned, PiS was relegated in favor of the coalition between Civic Coalition, Third Way, and The Left. At that time, Duda was at the center of controversy for his decision to call on Mateusz Morawiecki, prime minister since 2017 and member of the Law and Justice party, to form a government, since PiS had been the most voted party in those general elections, but lacked the necessary majority to govern, while the opposition led by Tusk did have that possibility. This action was seen as a way to delay Tusk’s assumption of power in order to obstruct the new coalition that would ultimately form the government. During his second term, such actions were common, and through vetoes or legal challenges, he delayed or blocked much of Tusk’s political agenda.
After the vote count was finalized in the first round of the presidential elections, the two candidates who advanced to the second round are the following:
5.1. Rafał Trzaskowski (Civic Coalition):
Trzaskowski was the clear favorite to win the elections, leading voting intention in most published polls. This is the second time Trzaskowski is running in the Polish presidential elections, as he was also the candidate nominated by Civic Coalition in 2020, when he was defeated in one of the closest elections in Poland’s recent democratic history, receiving 48.97% of the votes compared to the 51.03% obtained by Duda in the second round of that election. In the election held last May 18, Rafał Trzaskowski was the most voted contender with 31.36%, securing a slight two-point victory over Karol Nawrocki, with a result that was closer than expected, creating a scenario of uncertainty ahead of the June 1 runoff.
Trzaskowski is the current mayor of Warsaw, a position he has held since 2018. He is a politician with a progressive profile within Civic Platform, who graduated in European Studies from the College of Europe and obtained a PhD focused on Poland’s integration into the EU. The candidate has experience in Brussels as a Member of the European Parliament between 2009 and 2013 and was a minister in Tusk’s cabinet in 2014.
5.2. Karol Nawrocki (Law and Justice):
Nawrocki is a Polish historian with little political experience who served as Director of the Museum of the Second World War in Gdańsk, and has held the position of President of the Institute of National Remembrance since 2021—an institution focused on researching crimes committed during the Nazi and Soviet occupations from the beginning of the Second World War (September 1, 1939) until the fall of the communist regime in Poland in 1989 and the victory of the Solidarity movement. He placed second in the first round of the presidential election with 29.54%, very close to the winner.
Nawrocki is known for his strong anti-communist stance and for being a nationalist and traditionalist candidate, although he holds a deeply pro-NATO view, and in general, his positions on foreign policy do not differ greatly from the rest of the Alliance’s members. Not being a very well-known figure, in recent months he has sought to build an international profile by meeting in Brussels with Giorgia Meloni and in Washington with Donald Trump, among other prominent conservative politicians.
5.3. Other relevant candidates:
As for the remaining contenders, the case of the deputy running in the elections nominated by Confederation, Sławomir Mentzen, is worth highlighting. He is a young politician, 38 years old, libertarian, with Eurosceptic and nationalist positions, who gained popularity among the youth sector through campaigns on the social network TikTok — a phenomenon that is currently spreading among right-wing populist movements, as we have seen recently in Romania with the Georgescu case (the Constitutional Court of Romania annulled the elections due to evidence of Russian interference). His candidacy grew significantly in popularity in the months leading up to the election, and according to several polling agencies, he even had chances of becoming the second most voted candidate and surpassing Nawrocki in the race for the second round. However, in the final weeks, his candidacy lost some momentum and PiS comfortably held the second position. Even so, the result obtained represents a great success for his party, which received the greatest electoral support in its history with 14.81%.
Grzegorz Braun, a candidate even further to the right and more radical than Mentzen, came in fourth place in the election results, securing a surprising 6.34%. He is known for having been involved in controversial episodes both in Poland and in the European Parliament, among which his expulsion from the European hemicycle stands out, after interrupting a minute of silence for the victims of the Holocaust. The most resonant incident took place in December 2023, when he used a fire extinguisher in the Sejm (Polish Parliament) to extinguish the candles of a menorah (a lamp from Hebrew culture) during the Jewish Hanukkah celebration, calling the ceremony a “satanic act.” As a result of these actions, the European Parliament voted in favor of lifting his parliamentary immunity.
6. National and international implications
The consequences of this election are of great importance for the future of Poland, both in its domestic sphere and on the international stage. Donald Tusk has carried out a clear shift in Polish politics, bringing the country back onto the European path and turning Poland into one of the countries with the most political and decision-making weight in the EU, making use of his background as former President of the European Council. The current international geopolitical situation, in which the European Union finds itself in a state of hostility and high tension with Russia, has granted Poland a privileged role in terms of relevance within the Union, due to Poland’s position as the main antagonist of the Kremlin in the hybrid war that the European Union is currently engaged in with Russia.
In the same week as the elections, the main European leaders—Macron, Merz, Starmer and Tusk—held a joint meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy with the aim of forming a common front to defend European interests, given the neutral stance adopted by the United States under the new Trump administration, in order to pressure Putin to accept a ceasefire.
At the national level, Tusk has tried to dismantle the annexation of public media by PiS and has promoted press freedom in Poland. Another of his main objectives has been to undo PiS’s judicial reforms and to strengthen the independence of those institutions. In the area of immigration, however, Tusk has chosen to follow a very restrictive line, similar to that advocated by his more conservative rival parties, maintaining a policy of continuity with PiS by voting alongside Hungary (Orbán) against the EU migrant quota agreement. Recently, Tusk has supported temporarily suspending the right to asylum due to Russian and Belarusian aggression on the Polish border, involving the transfer of migrants from thousands of kilometers away to Poland as part of the aforementioned hybrid war.
In this context, a victory for Rafał Trzaskowski would greatly facilitate Tusk’s task of reversing the most authoritarian policies carried out by PiS during the years it held power, as well as the implementation of more progressive measures that Duda has so far blocked, such as the decriminalization of abortion up to twelve weeks, or the possibility of allowing civil unions between same-sex couples. On the other hand, if Nawrocki manages to consolidate the support of the forces to his right, he would face the June 1 elections with a strong chance of winning, which would greatly hinder Tusk and his government’s ability to carry out their agenda, thus putting their chances of reelection at risk.
References
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